February 14, 2025
What is Mean Reversion, and How Can Investors Use It?
Table of contents
Investment App for Beginners in the UK
Introduction
Introduction
As you will no doubt be aware, the fields of statistics and investing are closely intertwined. After all, stock market history is a century long dataset with opening and closing prices of assets on which we can perform statistical analyses.
People have tried for decades to assign statistical models to datasets from the stock market and use these to forecast forwards, with limited success. There are, however, some concepts that persist beyond the notions of predicting stock market performance to make money. One of these is reversion to the mean.
Reversion to the Mean
So what is reversion to the mean? It's a common statistics term often banded around both in day-to-day life and with respect to investment performance but few understand what it means.
In essence, reversion to the mean is the tendency for a variable that has been observed to differ from its average value to eventually return to that average value.
This phenomenon can be seen in many aspects of life, including investment performance. In this blog post, we will discuss reversion to the mean and how it affects investment returns. We will also provide some tips on how you can take advantage of this phenomenon in order to improve your investment portfolio!
What is reversion to the mean and why should you care about it
Human beings are often guilty of over-reacting to short-term changes. This can be seen in our daily lives when we make decisions based on recent events that may not be representative of the long-term trend. For example, you may go on a diet and lose a significant amount of weight in the first month.
Your friends and family may start to compliment you on your weight loss and you feel great about yourself! However, this short-term change is not likely to be representative of the long-term trend.
In other words, it is unlikely that you will continue to lose weight at the same rate in the second month or even maintain your weight loss.

The Sports Illustrated Paradox
This tendency to over-react to short-term changes is also seen in the stock market. In fact, there is a famous phenomenon known as the "Sports Illustrated Paradox" which demonstrates this concept perfectly.
The Sports Illustrated Paradox states that a player / team that is featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated magazine is likely to have worse performance in the following season. Wait, what do you mean worse?
The period following a season of outperformance
That's right: this is because the team has been "blessed" with good fortune and people tend to over-react to this short-term event. Making the cover of Sports Illustrated usually requires a season of extraordinary performance, likely beyond what is expected of a player / team.
As a result, one might bet on the team expecting that the run of good form will continue. However, this is usually not the case and the team's performance reverts back to the mean the following season.
How reversion to the mean affects investment performance
The same can be said for investment performance. Just because a stock has had a great year does not mean that it will continue to outperform in the following year. In fact, reversion to the mean would suggest that the stock is likely to underperform!
Fundamendal Analysis
Of course, this is purely from a statistical standpoint and ignores the fact that stock prices are (sometimes) based on fundamentals too. However, what it does do is highlight the importance of understanding basic statistical concepts and how they might affect your portfolio.
For example, when a stock or fund outperforms the market in the short-term, investors tend to pour money into it in the hope of earning above-average returns. However, reversion to the mean suggests that this is not likely to be sustainable in the long run. You of course want to be making investments before their big run ups rather than afterwards.
Blue Chip Companies
That being said, the best companies continue to grow strongly for decades, so it's vitally important to distinguish between periods of outperformance in stocks that have historically been undervalued with respect to future potential, and those that experience secular growth by virtue of just simply being better than everyone else.
Or, you know, having a Facebook-esque monopoly.
Tips on how to take advantage of reversion to the mean in your investment portfolio
Investors need to be aware of this phenomenon in order to avoid making costly mistakes. Here are a few tips on how you can take advantage of reversion to the mean in your investment portfolio:
- Don't chase performance: When a stock or fund outperforms the market in the short-term, resist the urge to pour money into it. Chasing performance is a surefire way to lose money in the long run. As mentioned, decide if your urge to do so stems from long term belief in the company or a hunt for short term gains.
- Be patient: Many investors are impatient and want to see immediate results from their investments. However, reversion to the mean suggests that it takes time for investment performance to revert back to the average. Think trends not swings!
- Stay diversified: Diversification is key to any successful investment portfolio. By spreading your money across different asset classes, you can minimise the impact of reversion to the mean. As different individual securities wax and wane in performance, the effects of short term fluctuations may well balance each other out.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that reversion to the mean can be a powerful tool for improving your investment performance.
By understanding and taking advantage of this phenomenon, you can improve your chances of achieving success in the stock market! Of course, keen portfolio management requires a detailed analytical tool with real time updates and insights on all your holdings.
Which is handy, because that's exactly what we've built. You can find a signup link for the Strabo portfolio tracker at the foot of the page.
This is one more example of how a basic understanding of statistics puts one ahead when thinking about not just investing but how real world events occur and interact with one another. There is a great deal of literature on the subject and smarter minds than ours have distilled this into more interesting and simpler summaries. We particularly like Taleb's Black Swan Theory and How Not to Be Wrong by James O'Brien.
What statistical concepts do you apply to your own portfolio management?
Why Use Investing Apps in the UK
Investing is now simpler than ever thanks to these applications, which get rid of the need for pricy brokers or complicated procedures. Investing apps like Trading 212, Freetrade, and Revolut make it possible for young and beginner investors to take control of their investments with their user friendly interfaces, built in educational tools and minimal or no costs.
As the need for low cost investing options and financial independence continues to grow, the UK is expected to utilise mobile investing tools even more in 2025. More people in the UK are using apps to manage their money as a result of its adaptability, simplicity of use, and the growing trend towards digital financial solutions and increased awareness of personal financial planning, which makes investing apps an effective tool for beginner investors.
Benefits of Using Investing Apps for Beginners
- Accessibility - By providing a straightforward, mobile friendly platform that is available at anytime and from any location, investing apps have completely changed how individuals invest. You no longer have to spend hours learning complicated systems or setting up sessions with financial experts. Beginners can begin investing directly from their smartphones with a few taps. Anyone, regardless of their schedule or location, can participate in investing without any obstacles thanks to this immediate access.
- Low cost - The affordability of investment apps is one of their most notable benefits. The high commissions and administration costs associated with traditional broking services make it challenging for those starting out to invest small amounts of money. On the other hand, a lot of investment apps provide cheap fees or commission free trading, which makes them perfect for beginners. This enables beginners to invest without fear of losing a significant amount of their profits to fees, allowing them to give more money to the market.
- Adaptability - Traditional investment strategies are not as flexible as investing apps. Beginners can more easily dabble without making a significant upfront payment because many investment platforms enable users to invest in a variety of assets, stocks and shares, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and specialised investment options, allowing beginners in the UK to diversify their investment portfolios right away. Furthermore, everyday investors may manage their investments on their own terms and are not restricted to a 9 to 5 schedule thanks to the option to trade at any time and from any location.
Manage your wealth like never before

Key Features to Look for in an Investment App for Beginners in the UK
- East to use interface
The design of the app should be simple and intuitive. You will find it easier to comprehend and utilise the platform without feeling overwhelmed if it has a straightforward and uncomplicated layout. - Educational Resources
The best investment apps include educational materials such as FAQs, videos, tutorials, and articles. Beginner investors can use as a guide to understand important investment strategies and make wise choices. - Platform fees
A lot of investment apps charge management fees and trading fees. To protect your investment gains, it's crucial for beginners to select an investment app with little to no costs. The best investment apps waive management fees or provide zero commission trading. - Low minimum investment
For beginners who might not have a large initial investment, apps that let you start investing with small amounts of money are excellent. Also look for apps that sell fractional shares, so you can invest in pricey stocks without having to purchase the entire share. - Portfolio diversification tools
Seek for investment apps that provide a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, index funds, and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Even with little money you can create a diversified portfolio by making a fractional investment in individual stocks. - Robo-Advisor Features
Some investment apps include robo-advisors which automatically manage your investment portfolio according to your goals and risk tolerance. For those whose may not feel comfortable choosing their own investments, this is a fantastic benefit. - Security features
It is important to ensure that the app has strong security features like encryption, two-factor authentication, and safe account recovery methods to protect personal data and information. - Current market data
The best investment apps have real time market data, charts and stock market performance metrics which are essential for beginners who wish to remain informed and make wise judgements. - Type of investment accounts
There are many types of investment accounts available, such as investment accounts for minors, individual retirement accounts and individual taxable accounts. You should choose an investment app that provides you with a range of account options that can help meet your financial objectives.
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